Monday, September 21, 2009

DRAGON IS LOOSING SENSE

The recent news reports pointing towards the rising tension at the Indo-China border is very serious and very alarming also. The China has reason to become aggressor in this case and create controversies as the Tibet and the region closer to Indian border is engulfed into deep trouble . People in these provinces are fighting the cultural white Wash the Chinese are doing in the Lhasa and surrounding areas.

They are deliberately killing the Tibetan culture by giving money in the hands of young Tibetans. They have turned the Tibetan girls to become whores and they are doing it to satisfy the Chinese Red army requirements as well as destroying the Tibetan culture. It is this point where it finds no support from India. Dalai Lama, spiritual leader from Tibet has found a sanctuary in India and has been runing his own Govt in exile. The Chinese think that they have all right to claim the stake over Arunachal Pradesh as it is very close in all issues to the Tibetan culture and since in 2006 India accepted the Tibet as internal part of China, dragon thinks its it natural right to stake claim on Arunachal Pradesh also.

Recent elections in Arunachal Pradesh, and related political visit by P.m. Manmohan Singh, has irked the Chinese Govt., but absolutely unnecessarily. The said territory always belonged to India and it will always remain that way. This must be conveyed to the Chinese in no uncertain terms. In fact if the Indian Govt. wants to avoid the war, then it must prepare for the war. It must start spending on enormous development of its military strength. If the borders are secured, economic development will automatically happen.

But it seems that the Govt. is more than neccessarily taking it easy. For several days none of the Govt. functionary was ready to say anything against the Chinese incursions in Arunachal Pradesh. Then blame was on the media to create hype in the country of a war. So did the Chinese, blamed it on Indian media. But Govt. controlled Chinese media was all united to criticise the Indian Prime MInister for his visit to Arunachal Pradesh. It seems we did a great mistake in accepting the Chinese claim on Tebet, without getting a concrete promise from the Chinese Govt. that it will not interfere in the internal affairs as well as they will accept and honour Indian boundries.

Prime Minister is busy in fondling with the economic boom, he and his team is considering disinvestment of PSUs and all that is not important from security of the nation point of view. It has been an old saying, that the Jis Desh Ka Raja Vyopari, Us Desh Ki Praja Bhikhari (Jiska Raja what we will do with the stocks and what it will realize if the Chinese forces to capture the Arunachal Pradesh by force. Do we have any preparedness for the same or we have already accepted the defeat. What happens to the money of the tax payers, spent on the military preparedness, if the same is not deployed in the best manner? What we will do of those planners and strtegic analysts, if they can not provide solutions to the problems faced by the Govt.


Secondly, we were a defeated nation in 1962. Weak and short sighted policies of P.M. Nehru has given the Chinese boost to their belief that India is weak country and can be bent over as and when required. It was the Chinese policies to make the countries around it to either toe to their wishes or face the war.

Thirdly the Chinese view India as their competitor. China started economic reforms in the year 1971 or so. They have been unchallenged for all these years. But India has been catching up Chinese very fast and it has potential to even take over the Chinese economy. China, instead of accepting the challenge, could try to hit India with a war and throw the Indian economy out of gear for decades and China continue to dream to rule the world one handed.

China has developed a kind of fear that it can not sustain its economic development vis-a-vis the Indian economic development. It knows its limitations. As its economy is absolutely controlled by the State, where the demand and supply statistics are controlled and manipulated by the Chinese Govt. itself. While the Indian economy is entrepreneur based, and which is subsequently based on market forces.

We have thousands of managers and skilled people who are readying themselves to challenge, hitherto unchallenged Chinese work force. While Chinese work force depends upon the money support provided by the State. Besides it is completely dependent on the exports to USA. If some day, if the dollar crashes, so will be the Chinese exports and the consequently the Chinese economic interests could get jeopardized.

Its demand for products hence is again controlled by the Chinese Govt., which encourages its nationals to spend more and more. While Indian economy is free to the wishes of consumers where consumer decides what, when & how much to consume.

Both the giants have many things in common and has a greater degree of potential for enmity between the two nation. Indians are very much cost cautious about using its national resources while the China to withstand competition, overlooks the cost of natural resources, besides the labour is cheap and under control of the Chinese Govt., that is why Chinese goods are so cheap in cost and quality.

I remember in the year 2003, the Chinese FM radios were flooded in the Indian market and were for sale just for Rs.50/=. People purchased it and then decided never to purchase any Chinese goods as it lacked quality. Consumers in India preferred to buy costly Indian goods against the cheaper Chinese goods.

Chinese economy is totally based on export of Chinese goods to Western countries, while the Indian economy is largely localised and hence has much more potential to fetch attractive fresh investments as well as a very good growth rate over period of time. THIS HURTS THE CHINESE RULERS.

A war with India could mean a increased business for the western nations, who could be more than happy to see that both these giants fight. Role of USA, will be limited to protect their own interests. It has huge investments in both countries and it can not afford to see a full fledged war between two neighbours, but it will have no options if China, rebukes USA, then there can not be any limit to the war.

However, war seems to be a distant possibility at the moment, as the stakes involved are very high and world community can not just be a watcher this time. China will have to be more precise and more practical. This game of cat & mouse, perhaps would not work this time. The Indian nation is much more stronger than the Govt., which looks lame duck at the moment. The will power of Indian masses must not be under-estimated, this time. This is not a Nehru era, when people used to believe him blindly and followed his policies without much practical approach.

Young Indians today will retaliate in the strongest manner and could be even better than the Chinese counter part. Though they might be great in numbers, but the will of this nation must not be gauged with the people in power circles in India. It would be a blood bath for any political party, if this time it makes India to surrender Chinese forces. Besides the leadership is much more matured than in 1962.

The only hitch is the political class of this country, which can not be trusted. This gut-less class could loose a war for India, in gift they would return part of territory belonging to India. The deal could take place to broker peace, not in the interest of India, but in the interest of the political class who has turned businessmen and can sell anything. The problem is not with the Indian masses, it is with the people who rule this nation.

But they must also be forewarned that if such an adventure, if at all, takes place, Chinese could really taste the blood of their own people, in India. The friendship and all such talks will be forgot and Indians will retaliate with vengeance.

It is clearly understood that the war will not be won by anybody and problems will never be solved with the war, it will enrage the problems further. A negotiated settlement to all the problems will be enough to douse the fire at the Indo-China border. But Indians can not take the threat from the Dragon lightly and pay price later on. We must be on guard. Militarily and politically. The Arunachal Pradesh row must be replied with Aksai Chin controversies. They must be told that the area, as disputed, between India & Pakistan can not be gifted by Pakistan to China.

Just think, we talk of peace with those who do not understand peace. If the Taliban comes and speaks language of bombs and suicide bombers, please tell them they have it the same way. If Pakistan wants a nuclear war with India, just declare that we have given up on policy of no-first use of nuclear weapons. Encircle the entire Chinese main land, with the inter-continental ballistics missiles, like Agni III, to tell them, if India attacked, no one is safe, not at least the attackers.

JAI HIND.