BE WATCHFUL OBAMA DOESN"T ACT AS OSAMA !!!

US election did create a sort of interest in India, as it did all over the world. The Elections were as peaceful and very quick in the entire country, unlike in India, where it takes months to finish the General Elections, every five years. The transition of power in the USA from Republican President to Democratic President was really very smooth. We all saw Republican candidate, Mr. McCain, accept the defeat for him. It was an intelligent act on his part, as he was already defeated and voters had rejected his party and his candidature, but in his parting shot, he said the defeat was his and victory of voters, he was giving his last speech as Presidential candidate. He was so humble and articulate.

As with that I was keeping a very close eye on Ms. Sarah Palin, the vice President aspirant. She was in the news all the time and always for the wrong reasons. She was present on the stage with her husband, another handsome guy, she stood there and for the entire speech, which must have lasted for more than 10 minutes, she made no moves. She did not even try to take over the microphone from Mr. McCain, even at the end. She got down of her own from the stage following Mr & Mrs McCain.

I watched their body language, and on back of my mind it was our leaders, who would fight elections and loose it. Their reactions are so weird that even after loosing such elections they would not dare to accept the defeat. There may be more curruption, more mud sliding, sledging, abusing and all that is worst, that could happen, might have had happened in and during the US Elections, but they have not forgot to show their honesty (may be hyprocratic, as some might feel) towards the people of US and its voters.

Well, that is not all. Barack Hussain Obama, the new President- elect, is expected to do too much and he has actually created expectations from the US citizens, facing one of the worst ever crisis in the entire history of USA. Well, being a first non-white President, he will need to tread very carefully.

Whatever may be his compulsion he will need to heed the USA requirements and he will act in a manner where he will see that more and more jobs are created. If he could, great. But if he could not, then he could take actions which could take away the jobs in India. This can create tremors in Indian IT and Outsourcing service industries. What he does and how it does, needs to be watched. Americans are very much notorious about their own interest, infact, all countries must book their interest first, and they will take actions which would suit themselves.

Their actions can create flutter in India. Indians working in these outsourcing firms have the habit of working in a environment, which pays them good money and fulfil their hunger for hi-fi life. They have now a new home, a car, two wheelers for wife and children, all the comforts of a home, everything on instalments. If they loose job, they might face one of the toughest time of their life and could even make their life even worse than the hell. They might give up everything and start their life afresh. It is better known to me than anybody else, who lost eveything in the 2001 in BHUJ, Kutch, Gujarat earthquake and started life afresh in Mumbai.

I wept quietly, when alone, pondering over my fate, my hard work to run commerce coaching classes, going down the drain. I know the pain that lies in the burden to start from scratch and I have passed through it. Many Indian IT professionals and many Indians who have had joined the MNC outsourcing in India, might have to adjust to the big story of recession in India. The stories of recession have already started trickling in. This neo-rich class will have to do away with the great life and make space for the simpler and life with careful planning about the spendings. It is perhaps the time to settle for lesser salary than to leave the job for new one. Perhaps that is the right thing to do. When in the boom time you tend to be little careless about the future and just go on a spending spree. But once in trouble one would take all measures he could and should have taken while in the boom time.


Story is similar to that of USA. India has not affected that badly or so is the politicians in India want Indian to believe, as we are not an economy which is completely dependent on America or Europe. But we in this globalized world, can not stay disconnected or aloof from what is happening around us. Indian economy is developing and booming because its local markets are so large and highly unexploited so far. This makes India less dependent on other countries of the world for its economic stability and progress.

Besides one can rest assured that we have two very honest men working at the helm, Mr. Manmohan Singh and Mr. Monteksingh. These two men are very clever economists and know what to do at what time. Unlike USA of Europe, Indian banking system is one of the safest amonst the world. It has mane controls directly from the Govt and regulator body RBI, which keeps a very close eye on the developments in banking industries.

Outsourcing industry actually grew very fast despite the dotcom bubble, which got blasted once it was clear that there in no future for a dotcom phenomena, but somehow this new phase of outsourcing started to work and it became one of the greatest ever source of income to modern India and obviously created name for the country.

People might be considering the fact that with the Obama's coming to power in USA, his priorities are clear. He wants to create jobs for the US citizens. If he does succeed then its okay, otherwise the jobs outsourced to India from USA, are all gone back to USA This is the fear as expressed by few experts in Indian media.

But that is easier said than done. He could do little about the profitability of those firms who have had contributed generously while the election campaign was going on. These corporates have made profits only out of cost cutting by outsourcing their operations outside USA. he might bring in some sort of actions like withdrawing tax cuts to those who opt for outsourcing their operations.

There was a sigh of relief when the new administration in waiting corrected their stand on Kashmir. Indian are so sensitive to Kashmir that even any reference to it, which is little deviating from the present stated stand, creates flutter in South Block, New Delhi. Obama understood this fact little late and meanwhile all those concerned had sleepless nights. There is one more aspect. The C.T.B.T. sign. Obama might create a situation where in Indian could be forced to sign the CTBT. He might be advised to take a tough stand on India, though it can not be sustained but he could give some sleepless nights to people in the Indian establishment.

At the same time he can not ignore a country like India and it s public opinion altogather, though has very less on perhaps no leverage as compared to the US public opinion. He coulsdnot forget how the Vajpeyee Govt was prevented from sending troops to Iraq despite several rounds of visits by high ranking US officials to persuade Indian Govt to send its troops in Baghdad.

Hence Indian Government neds to be watchful on 3 counts. Mr. Barack Obama will definitely look to guard American interest and that is his first priority. But in doing so, he could hurt Indian ineterest, which the Indian establishment needs to watch and tell the Americans when it hurts Indian interest. In case of collusion on interests, we need to sit with the Americans and find out ways which could be mutually beneficial. No Government on this earth can ignore India anymore.

KARL MUST NOW BE WORRIED....!!!!

The argument about the $700 Billion package and actions taken by the Central Banks all over Europe might heat up further. Capitalist countries and its citizens might not find this easy to gulp, forget to digest. The media is so powerful here that you need deeper studies into all these issues, its happenings, its effects and remedies to the problems.

Meanwhile, it is very important for me that all those who visit this blog and express themselves., must continue doing that despite their disagreement with my views . I am thankful to all those who visit this blog at the same time they write up their invaluable comments. And as my basic principle to publish their related comments unedited. (As I acknowledge the basic human right to express themselves freely.)

I have not been a very strong supporter for Bush Administration for what they have been doing after the sub prime crisis got few good banks. There may be great arguments over some part or the other parts of the package itself or the complexities involved into issues of an economy as huge as that of USA. There may be thousands of ifs and buts. There may have been many deep routed and inter connected complexities. But THE BASICS REMAINS THE SAME.

And what I think is from the basic. The basic of human nature, basic of trading, earning profit, sometimes legally and most of the time illegally, basic of all the systems that are working around us, almost work in tandem with each other. And once into the crisis mode, even the Government as stubborn as that of Mr. Bush, must turn to basics and set the things right from the basic.

One must try to understand these basics. Bush Administration was allowing the things to happen and then ran for the solutions, when it was too late. It waited till the smoke caught fire and became inferno, that is what happens whether it is USA or India or any other democracy. It was too late when the Lehman Brothers collapsed.

The sub-prime crisis was just going to happen sooner or later and it happened now. The money supply to the US economy increased when the DOTCOM bubble burst in year 2000. The money supplied to the US economy needed to be absorbed in all different manners. One of them was lending for house property. The banks were lending to those who had no capacity to pay back. They did not lend to eligible borrowers. or perhaps they were little bothered to check their financial anecdotes.

Everything was fine till the capacity to pay these loan was there with the borrower. But as soon as job creation in US economy stopped or say slowed down considerably, the paying capacity of the business to people got the maximum hit and consequently who were given loans started to default. This all was very badly got into the other big banks who had re-lent the loans to smaller banks. No body woke up till the time the Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Which has created a crisis of TRUST amongst the investors and those who have funds and their funds could be of great help to stabilize.

Well, coming back to the solutions now. Its all done and over, now the salvation and recovery part must begin. We cannot wait till all the people of this world become bankrupt. As one must understand that the destiny of single man on this earth is connected to that of USA. It could be complete chaos, if now the things were allowed to happen, which the Bush Administration did for the last two and half years. It is important to arrest the downfall. It is important that no banks further register for bankruptcy. Because more the banks register, more the money of investors in these banks would go bad. Which could be utter chaotic conditions.

To understand it further lets have a hypothetical example. We are just understanding the basic.

Suppose Mr. A has deposited $100 in the bank. And there are say million who have also saved their money into the bank. Bank after receiving these deposits, invested these funds in properties and other business which would give them better returns. Now due to some reasons bank loose on the value of few assets i.e., say due to recession the value of assets went down, bank would incur huge loss, on the news of bank going bad, depositor A, would go to withdraw his money back. Like him, millions of people who have money in the bank, would also rush for the same.

Since Banks do not keep the deposits to themselves, like that of received from Mr. A in the bank itself, in case of these depositors ask their money back at once, bank would not be in position to give them their money back. They would try to arrange for liquidity from all the sources available and even sell their investments (what these FIIs are doing in India at the moment. They are selling heavily and causing the market to collapse here.) The banks would be in terrific fix, as their investments are fetching less, they have t0 pay higher rate of interest to ward off liquidity crisis and they have no liquidity left as depositors like Mr. A are withdrawing from the bank. These depositors would even accept and settle for lesser amount than what he had deposited, thinking that whatever he got was his luck. Hence the loss is all around.

It is at this stage that the Govt requires to step in to create and support the atmosphere of trust. It would do all the things to support the banks from failing in their undertaking. Banks would be supported by providing them cheap short or long term funds, depending upon the requirements of these banks, it wold also buy few of the assets of the banks which are now low in their values etc. These steps would help banks to steer clear of the crisis in liquidity. The depositors/investors could ask their money back, but if they get their money back on time, they would come again to the would again invest with the bank and sort of trust would be created.

One must not forget that the Great Depression of 1929, which lasted for 10 long years, was not understood at that time. But the situation is greatly different now. The top experts on economy and financial services are being hired by almost all countries and they know the solutions to the problem. US citizens might question the Administration's act of $700 Billion package, and may cry foul as they are worried about why the Govt should pay tax payers' money for those who did the wrong by defaulting the loan repayment . But one not forget that the entire country or entire world for that reason can not not be punished for the wrong which they have not committed. The wrong was committed but that was due to the failure of system prevent there. This is an act of socialism, which the capitalist mindset would take longer to understand and adjust.

You must have noted that almost all the Central Banks, across the globe, irrespective of their ideology, have declared packages for their banks who might have been caught in the sub-prime and subsequent world economic crisis.

The first step in building TRUST. The downfall in the trust , once arrested , Govt has to use all the tools to control the consequent effects of such steps by any federal government. With passage of time, say 3 months, the situation would become normal and trust might have been back.

The support for the Bush Administration proposed $700 Billion package stems out of this fact. Not only the Bush Administration, even the Governments of Europe are also taking similar steps, which would restore the confidence of the people around the globe.

After this the most important part will begin, of making people to spend their money by spending on goods and material and to save and invest their excess money. Though they might have money, they would prefer to save those money for future contingencies., but not with banks and other financial institutions. If they are assured that their future is safe and they can safely either invest or spend in the market, both the ways will enhance the liquidity crunch in the market. It will boost production activity as demand for product is created and with the investment coming back to market, capital will not remain scarce.

Well, with regard to the market sliding all over the world, one must understand, that it is very sensitive to any news and sentiments could get affected. It is a panic selling in all the markets all over the world. With the trust restored and people readily spending their money or investing their money, markets could see a very strong surge within the next 6 months or so. REMEMBER the Govt all over world would not allow the depression to set in. They will take all the steps to see that recession stays away. It is the right time for the real investor to invest at this moment of time.

The Bush -Package may have its inherent discrepancies, but at the moment it is only the solution, the Bush Administration and so is the case with all those Western capitalist Economies. KARL will stay worried till the TRUST is restored.

NANO'S GUJARAT CONNEKTION...

Finally the curtain has fallen on the suspense on where the NANO plant will shift to, after Singur nightmare, as unleashed by Mamta Banerjee. She ensured that the TATAs were left with no choice but to leave West Bengal (WB). The Budhdhadeo Govt in Kolkata, might have done enough to ward of crisis with the local farmers, but did not worked. Not many were surprised when the Nano's prestigious plant went to Sanand, near Amdavad, Gujarat, as presently the Modi Govt. in Gujarat is doing extremely well in the State. The people in Gujarat are happy that the political stability is paying off. The NAMO (Narendra Modi) factor has worked for the better. The best part of the entire story on Gujarat's success story is that at last Gujarat has got a CM (he calls himself Common Man), who can deliver.

Singur will always be sorry for what they did to TATA. The big industrial house's project might have had created thousands of job in WB, but Mamta Banerjee had some good plans for herself in the WB state. It was a fight between the individuals. It is really pity that the entire state of WB will suffer due to this personal fights between the communists and TMC. the sad story is the people of WB could perhaps do really little in this particular case.

The swiftness as show by Govt in this western state of India is really commendable. It was able to convince the top brass of the TATA to come to Gujarat, was something really appreciable. Politics has defeated the progress. Ms. Banerjee will repent for what she has done to the State of West Bengal. In fact the petty political gimmicks and meaningless one-upmanship has taken toll on the progress of the State. The Congress party is equally responsible for the sad departure of one of the most prestigeous plant of modern India. As without the powerful support of any one very powerful, can not withstand the brand name TATA alone.

It is really pity that the people of this country can be taken for a ride so easily by these politicians, who claim to be serving this country. The farmers can easily provoked in Singur for the price of the land TATA had acquired. I really wonder how they could not have tried to talk to TATA directly. without the politicians being involved in their problems? Look what the J & K Hindus did while agitating for the Amarnath Shrine land. It even kept the BJP, Bajrang Dal & all such Hindu outfits. Perhaps that was the reason for their win in the fight for their casue.

Politicians have their own agenda. Mamta wanted a revenge on Left Front Govt. and so was the congress who lost the support at centre on the ground of Nuclear deal with the USA. So the congress and Trinamul Congress of Mamata, were settling their scores with the left front Government. However the major loosers were the people of West Bengal and to an extent TATA Motors. The businessman is very wll versed with earning profit or loss, but what will happen to those people of Singur, who were envisaging a good business in their town and what will happen to other ancilliary industries which might have had come, had there been this plant established as planned. People around the Singur, might have lost an opportunity of their life time just due to the ego of the politicians of this country. (read Mamta Banerjee, Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Prakash Kharat)

The similar mistake is in the pipeline in Maharashtra. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackaray. He is institing on the Marathi culture, Marathi Language as common language of Mumbai and jobs to Marathi people. His ire over the North Indians has made him popular over night. This gimmick seems to have been working for the moment. He has awakened the Marathi Manus(Marathi Man) and he has started behaving as that the Mumbai is his ancetral property and everything in Mumbai belongs to him. Remember, his uncle, Bal Thackaray had committed the same mistake. It was in 1980s this gentle man led the same agitation, and had reached the Maharashtra Assembly. They ruled the State for almost one decade. God only knows what the betterment they did for Maharashtrain people, which they used to claim when they were out of power. The only difference it made to Thakaray family, that they become rich in all resources during this period. Even the maharshtrains had to pay the bribe during their rule. Remember this line that a day will come and he will try to show that he is taking all the people in cofidence around.

Raj Thackaray is doing the same thing. He is not having power right now. His worries for Marathi Manus was dormant, while he was in power. It is really not understood how this people remember plight of farmers of Singur or that of Marathi Manus, while they are out of power. While in the power they are interested just in making their resources strong.

But Raj must not forget that due to the policies of Bal Thackray, many business houses shifted their business, plants, manufactuiring units in Gujarat, Karanataka. These states became rich in industrial base and created jobs for thousands. Loosers here were the Maharashtra people. Business goes where there is peace, security and profitablity.

This time around the time is different. Mumbai has not remained the only port of entry for North India.We have heard mant people say the business in the olden days used to be brisk. Nor does it have one of the best infrastructure available to the business. Some time it seems that the planners of this city are totally confused and do not understand from where to start and what to start. If it does start. the political outfits are out to gain the maximum advantage by either supporting or blocking the projects. Corruption is rampant. Everybody from top to bottom want money. Even after paying bribe you are not confident that the work has been accomplished.

Several ports have been developed in Gujarat and they have oneof the best infrastructure in Gujarat. The roads are superb and administration very friendly to the business community. One can not recognize the fae of city BHUJ in Kutch district which was hit by one of the most devastating earth quake on 26th Jnauary 2001. Development has been a top priority for the present State Govt.

Raj must worry about why the locals have been left behind. Despite the best educational set up, top technicians and officials are not the locals. Why the people from North are preferred over the local people. He must find out why this is happening when the Mumbai and Maharastra has stayed on top as prosperous and fast developing State for a long period of time. Why these locals have not learned to work hard like the people who come from other States. It has been discussed many times with many people that people from North India are ready to work at your conditions and not the other way round. Are you going to give a job just because he is local and going to accept all his conditions relating to work environment?

(He was heard targeting the Chief Minister for not being able to fetch Tata's Nano Project to Maharashtra - He needed to stop the violence in Maharashtra against the cheap labour coming from North India and assure the TATAs or such a industrialists that there will not be any disturbance from his side.)

You might do it your way, Mr. Raj, but by the time you become Chief Minister, you might have been responsible of having scared away the top business houses out of Maharashtra. Are you going to set up your own business houses here? As said earlier, business brings in Capital. Capital comes only when there is stability, peace and profitability. If the business man does not earn or make profit he will not come Maharashtra. (The Reliance SEZ is emboiled in politics near New Bombay).

The Maharastrian people must think over all these issues. A introspection is must at this juncture and the solution as put forward by Mr. Raj is utterly against the business logic. Business atmosphere will bring in Capital, create job and bring in prosperity. If a State has to retain the number one position Raj must acknowledge what he has been doing is wrong. He needs to be creative. Just boasting that Marathi culture and speaking or sign boards in Marathi will not stop farmers in Vidarbh and Marathawada from committing suicide. Nor will it help locals in increasing their competitiveness globally. He might win good number of seats, beating his uncle, but can he stay there with hatred in his mind. He might, of course win few seats, but not the elections. He will have to come down from where he is now. Will the Marathi people will accept his this political tantrum, like what his uncle did? remember, what you saw, you get. Uncle saw hatred, nephew is fetching fo rhis uncle in the same manner. Raj, must receive the same, what he is sawing right now.

People must understand that they need not be very emotional on everytime this family arouses the Marathi pride. (WHile Mr. Raj's ward who has selected French in collge over Marathi language, as French is scoring language and not Marathi and has international importance.) It really pity that despite understanding what Mr. Raj or Ms. Mamta, are doing, people tend to suppot these people and then lament that the political system in India has failed. It is not political system which had failed, but it is the failure of our understanding of issues and taking corrective measures as and when required. We have to learn to dump those politicians who are against the development and hence against people's prosperity, the faces might change, but their agenda remains the same. POWER.....!!!!!!

KARL IS SMILING......part 2

It is important to understand the basic fibre of these capitalist countries. The US and the entire European Union has its roots in the Capitalist ideology. It is a system wherein Govt only deals with basic State function. They neither take part in the planning for a economy to develop nor they have any rules or regulation in place for the developing an all round development of economy. Market, is their mirror. Everything in these economies will depend upon the market and every market depends upon the buyer. Market will be non-existent without the buyer and that's the reason why the buyer is the king here. He decides what he will buy and what should then be produced.

It is here that to attract the buyer, credit system comes into the dealings and the entire US economy was booming due to the credit made available to Americans. The market forces decided what was to be produced and to what an extent, besides the credit facilities stabilized the demands for these products.

Now, the Republicans are the most stubborn supporters of these capitalist policies. The most of Republican party has top leaders of businesses, who are top CEO of top Multinationals, as their members. While the democrats have little flexible approach to these issues.

The problem here now is the Economic Package of $700 Billion, is stuck. The Republicans will not support it as it is against their ideology, while the Democrats will support it, but they are out of the power centre at the moment. Hence the Bush Package will face tremendous opposition and even if the Bill passes in both the Houses, Republicans could work hard to fail such a bail out plan from nearing success. They might put forward arguments like the misuse of tax payers' money, but where these tax payers' money and concern for it goes when the question arises regarding the banks going bankrupt. What about the safety for investors? Why were no precasutions were taken when the sub prime scandle was detected ? Why were tax benefits were allowed in the first place to those MNCs who were exporting jobs outside the America ?

The issue of tax payers money has no role to play in widely hypocritic country like USA, in which when you say something, the meaning is something else, while the target audience is somewhere else and benefits some where else. USA democracy is no different from Indian mobocracy. Though we Indians will accept it, while if you say this to any American he will show you how arrogant he is and to what extent he could go to refute you. But for once it is assumed that it is not the case then why fewer and fewer people benefit from Govt policies and why large number of people still work for their bread. The scenario is not different from India.

Bush Administration is working hard to avoid the repeat of what had happened in the great depression of 1930, where the Govt. at that time just allowed all the banks to register their bankruptcy and such banks crossed into thousands. These bank had no liquidity and that caused the great depression to go on for 9 long years. Had there been a solution as mooted by Bush, in place, banks could have been helped to avoid the liquidity crisis and there might have been chances that the great depression might have had ended earlier than the beginning of the second world war.

It finished every American and destroyed every American Dream. Thanks to Adolf Hitler who initiated war against the Europe and in particular the UK and became to casue the starting of second world war, US economy started to role during the second world war as Americans had emerged as the largest suppliers of Arms and Ammunition to allied forces. The war fuelled the depressed economy into one of the most vibrant economies of the world at that time and it remained so for nearly six decades.

Is it Iran this time ? Or Pakistan ? or North Korea ?


There may be few takers for the Bush Administration plan for $700 Billion package but that's what perhaps he was expected to do. Remember that Bush Administration had little choice except this bail out plan. And also remember he is a Republican and Republicans are most conservative about the identity of USA as the parent country following the capitalist form of Govt and prospering. They have been supporting this country to be absolutely CAPITALISTS. The Democrats have a little different ideology. They are of the view that they need not be that stubborn on any of the issues relating to the national interests. That is perhaps the reason for the Republicans to oppose the Bush package and inversely the democrats are supporting what Republicans should have been doing.

The seriousness of the crisis in which the USA is at the moment can be gauged from the fact that the most Conservative party, headed by Mr. Bush has mooted a $700 Billion package. As written in the previous write up, it is perhaps for the first time that such a move which could be termed as the direct Govt interference in the USA economy.

The package is directly and indirectly pump the said money into the US economy. It may be buying of assets of those bankrupt investment banks as well as allowing tax concessions to those affected or many other ways which will be asked to Administration of Mr.Bush. But considering all those consequences as analysed in my previous write ups, this package is an improvement over mistake committed by the US administration in 1930, when it had become silent spectator and left the entire US economy and economies of world in suspended animation for another 9 years. Bush is perhaps trying to avoid the same scene happening in 2008.

But how can you refuse to agree with me that the fall in wall street had made Karl Marx happy. he must have been telling to himself that he had envisaged such an outrage world over and had warned the humankind for such events happening in future. But like the products which they sell comes along with attractive packagiing materials, Capitalism mesmerized the world with the development and prosperity to all. All the gains and positive sides were very cleverly highlighted.

For all these years it had been an open policy to call communist countries an Evil Empire, especially the then USSR. One can not forget that famous speech of Mr. Ronald Reagan, when he was advocating his ambitious Star Wars programme. But as far as it is known to the world, that when the USSR fell, no common men on the streets of New York lost their money in stock market or real estate or anything that was connected with bread and butter of a man in Mumbai to Hawaii to Perth to Dubai. There was no share market collapse, not a single investor had lost money the way the people have lost their money now. The world Governments are doing overtime to find ways to tide over this crisis. The most conservative Governments of Europe are readying to start interfering with the economic activities, presumed to be one of most unholiestic act of any capitalist country. European Govt have already pledged huge sum of money for their Banks, whether commercial or investment, to steer off from this crisis.

Today the scene is that everybody on this earth has lost something due to the American recession. It was not enough for the corporates to loot the gullible American citizens, they under the agies of globalization had started looting the world population as a whole. They had reached a stage where they can not further loot the people and then fell.

Imagine, the dollar should have become weak due to recession in America, the world over. Even with the Bush Administration going gunge ho, about the $700 Billion salvage package, the Rupee has been seeing a new low everyday and not the dollar. Money for the sub-prime loss has already been recovered with the large scale oil price speculation. Large funds from all over the world had already been swept by the speculators who are managing this show. Not satisfied with the already on the knees the investors world over, this new drama of investment banking bankruptcy has started. We as Indians will have to be silent spectators, while all our cloths from our body are taken away.

The rising dollar, despite the sub-prime crisis and consequent American rescue act, creates a doubt of utter market manipulation. This is not free market economy. With rising dollar, the demand for oil will go down further the world over. This will make the Americans to buy oil at cheaper rate. Understanding this nitty-gritty requires in depth knowledge and information and also the source as to who is handling this and in perfect co-ordination with the US interest.


In short the capitalist system has failed as that of communist system. Both the systems had chances of failure, which were overlooked by its over-zealous followers. There is one more such system which is waiting to be in line of the two ! The Chinese mix of capitalism, communism or dictatorship. Oh ! what a confusion ! It will continue till the citizens find its benefits and are not exploited the way other two systems exploited its own civilians and failed. Dishonesty and misuse of power by those who had it, crossed all levels and such a scenario was always in making.
With every passing day, Karl Marx smile is widening and perhaps after years of wait, finally his soul would be happy.

Considering the Indian side of this crisis perhaps our Finance Minister has no idea about the extent to which the Indian economy is dependent on Global markets and how far the India Inc. could get affected due to this meltdown in USA, as at the time of booming share market he was not letting any opportunity go to claim the credit for making the country's economy vibrant, is not accessible these days. Perhaps sitting with our home minister Mr. Shivraj Patil, who is trouble following Delhi serial blasts.

It is urgently required that Indian Government implement the policy of creating and building national base for capital, required for the development. We must forget the old days of cheaper capital coming to our country at all. Govt must pool all its resources and support the India Inc. to get cheaper capital and if required should bear the cost difference in rates. This should give momentum to slowed down developmental work. It is highly expected that the developmental work including the infrastructure will require huge capital.

One thing we are assured of so far is, our banks have not gone kaput, like that of American and European banks. We need to consolidate with this from now onwards. RBI should reduce the CRR further to make available the idle cash for the developmental area. Mr. Finance Minister and the team of so called economists with this Govt must ensure that the funds so made available by RBI by cutting CRR and other such measures reach the infrastructure projects or such huge projects such as electricity or dams. This will fuel the domestic market and a powerful shock absorbers can be created within the country to guard against tremors coming from the west.

If and when the US economy picks up steam, Indian economy will be ready to accept the investments coming from US a7 Europe.

This is not as simple as it seems to be and the way I have written. Economies have many complex issues to tackle and contentious issues to sort out. But the bottom lines always remain the same. The solution to our problem always lies with us and not the neighbour. Same way Indian economic woes could worsen, if the our Finance Minister waits for the US treasury to announce similar package to salvage Indian economy. HE must realize that Capitalist ideology has failed and he must adopt something a mixture of everything....like the Chinese are doing. They themselves, perhaps do not know what ideology they are following....except for the communists in India, who still follow communist ideology of 19Th century......KARL IS STILL SMILING.....!!!!!!


(Completed)

KARL IS SMILING....!!!!!

Karl Marx who wrote the world famous book DAS KAPITAL, where in he had visualized a society in which everything would be owned by the Government of that country and such Government will work for the betterment of the society. He envisaged an ideal condition wherein all the people will be treated equally and there will be no classification of society based on economic class.

When the red army captured Moscow and then formation of Union Of Soviet Socialist Republic, his dream of a society having all people as its equal citizen started to materialize. But with Stalin in power, the first signs of the crack in the systems appeared. While taking over the land of millions of farmer under the plan to centralize the agriculture, many were brutally killed. That was the first sign of failure of Communism. The atrocities of KGB on innocent civilians that followed for decades just to achieve what Marx had envisaged on paper. The iron curtain was so feared that nobody dared to talk about the Government, their problems, their complains. Communism was to fail as it was not as per the aspiration of Karl Marx. It had become a utterly authoritarian government.

I remember I was very young when Mr. Gorbochev was elected as the Chairman of Communist Party of USSR. He was termed as one of the most progressive leaders in USSR at that time. He introduced GLASNOST, meaning openness and PERESTROIKA meaning reforms. The Soviets started to respond, fear about the Government started to come down. Gorbochev was seen mingling with workers of factory and discussing relevant issues with these workers.

The Soviet people felt a sigh of relief and hoped that the years of repression and exploitation by the Communist Party in the name of the rights of labourers and equal distribution of wealth for many decades. People had no basic facilities and no one was willing to work hard. Even if he was to work hard, he will get the same amount of remuneration as any other worker. This reduced their inclination to work.

Gorbochev was a very wise leader and he forced years of repression to end. But when this process was going on, people of Russia, thought that they had all the resources and the most powerful amongst the other Republican States, why should they share their prosperity with other States of USSR. That caused split of USSR forever.

The Communist ideology failed because it had reached a stage of no return and at a point where no correction either was possible or never ever thought of applying one on hand. Gorbochev did tried to do that, but resulted in the breaking up of a super power.

Gorbochev could have had used military force to keep the USSR together, but I wonder even he was not interested in the independent Russian State. Perhaps he liked what Boris Yeltsin did in Moscow rally when Yeltsin climbed up on a military tank and challenged USSR authority.

One can doubt that it was his support for breaking up of USSR in disguise, he could only himself answer this question. May be as other ordinary Russian he thought that other States of USSR, were burden on the Russian Economy, so he allowed Boris to even humiliate him in the Russian Parliament.

Communists were born out of the extreme exploitation by the capitalist ideology in other Western countries in late part of 19th Century and in the beginning of the 20th Century. History is full with the atrocities committed by the top industrialists in the western powers. Such an exploitation was necessary to sustain Industrial revolution. Industrial prosperity of developed countries is founded on blood and exploitation of their nationals. Though they are now acting as the guardians of Human Rights all over the world, is part of their hypocrisy, in which they are unbeatable.

Karl Marx, who wrote Das Kapital, sitting in the library of London, fuelled one of the greatest revolution across the Globe against the Capitalism. The communist ideology hated capitalism and for more than 80 years it fought a ideological war with the other Capitalist countries like USA, UK, Germany, France, etc.

But it collapsed as it was not acceptable to people of USSR. It had not considered the basic human nature of competition and aspiration to lead a better life. Communist ideology was just like a four side wall. Nothing can come in, nothing can go out. It failed to bring prosperity to all citizens, but instead it assured poorness to all of its citizens. This was common sight, except for the people who were close to power. They prospered unabashed. USSR collapsed because it had reached a stage of extreme exploitation in the name of interest of labour and utter hatred for Capitalism. It disregarded the basic human instincts to own property, a basic inclination to work and work harder.

Remembering Communism as inspired by Karl Marx was important in the light of recent collapse of pillars in wall street. The economic earth quake hit Lehman Brothers, Meryle Lynch and A.I.G., all of them were top Investment Banking multi nationals, brought tremors in the world markets and can have potential of hurting economies world over. The hit it has taken on the confidence of investors all over the world is worst than the 9/11 attack on WTC.

Investors has lost money which can not be imagined and the time it could take to bring back the confidence of gullible investors. This is the worst ever hit on the Capitalist form of economic arrangements and society after The Great depression of 1930. If one remembers those days, 9000 banks all over USA had gone bankrupt within 6 months. The crisis had its roots in the Share Market. People took the loan and invested in shares and in 1929 US treasury increased the lending rates, which triggered one of the biggest ever fall of market leading to major loan takers failing to pay back their loans and banks failing to honour their obligation for lack of liquidity, resulting in banks going bankrupt.

Here in this case it is sub-prime lending and loan takers have started to fail in repaying these loans, leading to all those financial institutions who directly or indirectly were involved in sub-prime lending. There may be many causes and the American experts will go deeper into it, but this issue was discussed long back with one friend, about the sub prime problem.

The Americans were not that alert in handling the scenario. The sub-prime happened due to many reasons and one of it was the job out sourcing to countries like India. The logic can be explained like this, that if the USA was allowing the jobs to be out sourced to other countries like India, Pakistan and even China, the purchasing power of the natives would get reduced and could result in the lesser buying, lesser demand and lesser production and lesser jobs . Whic h will fuel the bad loans as people do not have money to eat how they will think of paying back the loans they had purchased.

Increased loan repayment schedules, forced many to sell their homes, meaning more houses were put in the market for sale, while there were no or fewer buyers, this agonized the house onwers as they had paid more to buy these houses, they can not sell them as these houses would not fetch them the right price nor they can stay with it as they had no repaying potential , as he had competitors in form of Indians, Chinese, Sri Lankans etc., who took away their jobs for cheap. The multinationals had a practise to shift their jobs overseas for cheap and increase their profits. Here the intention was good as more profits will make these firms to invest more and create more jobs. This did happen but the jobs were created outside USA.

It was wondered that how this could have been allowed ! Was the economic interest and making profits was so important and above national interest that it was overlooked for such a long time. All the MNCs were busy making more profits by transferring jobs to India like countries .The Govts there supported this move of exporting jobs and also allowed tax concessions to these companies. The sub-primery crisis was going to happen.

Let me be very clear, that there may be many more complex reasons and explanations, this is all logical explanations and conclusions. You might do several complex calculations but the basic remains plus, minus multiply and division. Like wise USA may have the most complex financial structures, but the fact said above can not be refuted either.

Anyway, third world countries did benefit from this lapse on part of Bush Administration for sometime. But when the America is in danger, rest of world can not stay away from the US economic meltdown. All markets all over the world have shown down ward trend. All markets are collapsing. FIIs are pulling their money back from all the world markets and are booking profit, to hedge against the possible loss at home in sub-prime lendings.

In both above cases of Communism and Capitalism, extreme points in both the systems have failed. The President Bush is perhaps right in declaring a $ 700 Billion package for the Banks in USA, he is perhaps little late in taking corrective measures. He should have been quick enough to control out going jobs from Americans in the first place.

Congress has hesitated to approve such a package as it amounts to simply printing of fresh dollars and pumping the same into the American Economy, this could increase the inflation in US economy and could result in decrease in the value of dollar at international level, which could trigger the crude price upward and collapse the stock markets further. American nightmare will hurt all economies of the world. But above all Govt interference with the economy is against the capitalist practise. So it could hurt their ego. How they could go the USSR way of helping the economy with Govt interference when required. That is the real casue of concern for Congress.

It may happen other way round also that the money so pumped will boost the liquiidty with the American Banks, which could help them to tide over the liquididty crunch and they start fresh lending. Such lending could start a positive cycle of demand and supply and creation of new jobs and increased purchasing power in the Americans. The world markets could boom again.

Remember the economic systems, may it be Capitalism or Communism are devised with intention of something good hapening to mankind. But inherent quality of dishonesty, misappropriation and exploitation by powerful , of those who are less able, will never make either of these systems workable.

Mind you these qualities are and will always remain on paper and they can not be expected from the people who are and who can make difference. You may perhaps change the systems form Capitalist to Communist, but what about the human mind, which has unlimited greed for money and lust for power !

(Continued........)

My Introduction

Writing is my passion and i have been into this hobby since i was very young. I always liked expressing my mind on several subjects. It happened that what I felt happened many times. And I had expressed the same thing in quite advance. But since I had no proof, I merely used to say that " I told You" like tunes.

But one day I came accros the idea of starting my own blog. Where I could express my mind and let the others who are interested enough to feel my way, can come and share their feelings. I have received a good response. Those who read my blogs, have put up comments, some of agrreing with me, some disagreeing. But i have published them all, without any bias and I would continue to do so.

I appeal to all those who visit my blog, to write their comments on my blog, which I promise not to modify (if presented in decent language). There is another section which will get started very soon about the stories which I had written when I was very young. All those small and long stories need to be typed and stored up in the computer before they all get published on this blog.

Keep visiting and keep commenting on all write ups.

Bye Bye.

Ajay Mehta

Future of Kashmir.....!!!!

The Amarnath Shrine Board land controversy has taken a turn where the dormant separatists movement in Kashmir is given a new lease of life. The Congress Govt at the centre and Govt of J & K, especially Mr. Vora, the Governor of J & K, must take blame for this most unfortunate turn of events. The separatist movement which had died down slowly, has suddenly got a new lease of life, due to lack of knowledge in ground realities and ignorance about the local people’s political aspirations of top political leaders of this country. Here there is no particular party or ideology to blame but the entire Indian Political leadership is without any direction. There is absolute lack of imagination about the political solution to J & K problem.

We understand that the politicians are just the representative of Indian masses, who come and go at the end of every five years. They are pretty busy in their primary task of making money as it is supposedly their best time to make money for them and their family. Hey are not sure about their return to this of their position after the 5 years. So the national issues are of secondary issues, primary being making money by any means. So one is not surprised about their ignorance and lack of imagination on the core problem of J & K.

But we are unable to understand what has happened to those civil servants who are most educated and learned. They have the brain and ability to understand the actual problem and advise the Govt in power to take appropriate measures. The political class of this country is completely out of date and out of time with out of mind. But here the entire IAS officials who actually rule the country from behind the screen seems to have also lost the willingness to perform. These people are highly intelligent and motivated, as their studies and their syllabus demand such an aptitude from them, are seems to have hand in glove with the present politicians and are also making money for their generations to come. Their role in this regard must come under scanner. It is they who actually decide the present & future of our country.

It is these officials who actually advise the Indian leaders. Since they are the most educated lot in the corridors of the power, they must take the equal blame for the policy failure on J & K. It will be time when these officials and the politicians will have to give answers to future generations of India. As these people are proclaimed and unchallenged kings of Indian democracy (mobocracy).

The Hurriyat Conference has received a sudden boost to its image as a party who will liberate Kashmir from Indian clutches. (?) These Kashmiris are asking for freedom from Indian rule in Kashmir.

They need to give clear answers to following questions before they talk of freedom.

Whom do we give freedom to? Whom do we talk about the freedom with?

Is Hurriyat Conference their true representative?

Does this Hurriyat Conference has its acceptance beyond Srinagar?

Have these people in Valley ensured that Pakistan will also give freedom to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK)?

Who will pay back for all these years of aid given to Kashmir’s development & its security, incurred after the independence?

Who will pay for the plight Kashmiri Pandits, who were driven out of their homes in Kashmir? Was not this ethnic cleansing In Kashmir? Who will be held responsible for their killing, looting of their properties in Kashmir?

Hurriyat Conference (HC) is behaving like of spoiled child. Who keeps on crying for more and more, like a spoiled child keeps his parents always on toes! Their demand has nothing to do with the Kashmir people’s aspirations. It is they themselves, who want to win the elections going to be held in the next 6 months or so. They are trying to win the sympathy and attention of people of Kashmir, which could win them elections and get into the J & k Assembly.

Their plan of actions does not end there. They want every Indian Govt at centre on their knees. They will get a stage where they can speak anything they want, once they are in the Assembly, as people’s representative. They can pressurize any Govt at Centre and get their work done. It is urgently required that how much property they have amassed during their political career must be disclosed to the people of J & K.

The HC leaders are hitting on the face of these idiot leaders who have no daring to say to HC that they are wrong. They fear that they could loose the Muslim votes in their constituency. HC will continue to say everything which is anti-India, anti-Hindu. They will not respect our Constitution and our principle to Rule of Law. If this had been USA or Israel, HC would have had already been dissolved and its members missing in the world population, with all of them trying to hide their original identity, as such of their act must be construed and will be construed by these Governments as a war against a nation.

They are throwing insults after insults to our self-respect and our motherland. In this highly charged atmosphere, the people of Jammu are doing a great service to our nation. They are fighting highly pampered and completely rotten leadership led by HC. What the entire nation should have done unitedly, is being done by the Jammu residents with their agitation to get back the land earmarked for the Amarnath Shrine. It is deeply felt that why these Muslims of Kashmir are pampered and for what? They must stay as a equal citizen of India and enjoy all rights and enjoy privileges and also fulfill their duty as citizen of Indian Union.

It is so pity that we have no other option but to wait and watch for our own destruction by these handful people who belong to Congress, BSP, SP, PF in Kashmir, Hurriyant Conference & BJP. They have all unitedly ruined this wonderful nation and they will be asked questions by future generations as to what and how they served the Indian nation.

The present situation in Kashmir & Jammu may be very dangerous. It is more likely that prolonged agitation for separation from Indian Union could worsen the political stability gained in last few years. If this happens, which seems more likely now, the President's rule could be imposed for the coming few months and subsequently the Assembly elections could be postponed. The terrorist activities could gain momentum as never before with the support of local and foreign terrorists. They will give our security forces one of the toughest-ever fight. Much melodrama over Kashmir and its freedom could unfold, and perhaps more blood could be shed on streets and outskirts of Srinagar. As it has happened in past, Pakistan will be willing to jump into the turmoil and support separatists. Hence the scenario will worsen further for Indian Security Forces.

Speaking on Political front, with the elections around in next six months, all parties are trying to win the popularity and hence win elections. Becoming a J & K Chief Minister, you can challenge the Indian Prime Minister without the fear of being sacked from the office by New Delhi. Secondly you have command over immense Central Govt aid on all the developmental projects of this State. Tax-payers’ money get wasted on people who do not think that they are part of this country!

But this time around lady luck is smiling on India. We are confident that the politicians have no capacity to understand and solve the problem as such, we have to look around for the possible fate of this agitation and how it could turn India’s way.

While that the General Elections round the corner in the beginning of the year 2009, Congress Govt at the Centre can not afford to go to elections looking so bad in J & K. In such a scenario, it could only help BJP. Because with every passing day common man could think that this Govt has ruined everything what the predecessor Govt had left behind. All achievements of previous Govt raped very badly by UPA Govt. So it is a one way ticket for Congress, to be out of the Govt, if the J & K situation does not improve or at least the people of this country are not enough satisfied that the UPA Govt has done everything to control J & k situation. (remember, the situation was worsened by Congress only)

Hence the SMS (Sardar Manmohan Singh !) Govt will wait till the situation worsens in Kashmir for the good, for claiming to have been working very hard to control secessionists in Kashmir.

This sounds a story or script of a Hindi film, but much of the said things will not change.

As said earlier this time around the lady-luck is smiling on India. Biggest enemy, Pakistan itself is in deep trouble. With democracy starting to rule the Pakistan and army in Pakistan getting perhaps the first ever direct drubbing in form of President Musharaff resigning from the office. It has some way or the other strengthened the hands of democracy in Pakistan. With Nawaz Sharif out of the coalition government, Pakistan could be asking for trouble in form of political instability.

Afghanistan on the other hand had been targeting Pakistan for the terrorist attacks on its soil and Pakistan does not have many friends in Europe either. The Middle East countries will not cross swords with USA and its allies. They know what happened to Saddam Hussein; can happen to them and their country. So Pakistan is isolated at the moment. Besides every country on the earth know what the intentions are of Pakistanis. So this is the time which is much different than it was when the operation TOPAC was initiated around 1985-86.

Already the debate in Pakistan is on and they are pondering over how they have reached a stage of being called a failed State, while India, who got the freedom at the same time, is thriving to be a prospective super power and prospective economic power house. The learned friends of Pakistan are asking question to their leaders as to what went wrong with Pakistan? It is simple as it is, that you get what you saw as seed. They planted terrorists, bombs, killings, deaths, instability and interference in neighboring countries, clandestine theft of technology related with nuclear weapons, they are getting the same thing in return or they will get the same thing in return. If this realization has really dawned on Pakistanis, it is still not late, and for good cause it is never late, and better be late than never.

So what happens in Kashmir now?

The security forces may clamp curfew for few days at a stretch. There may be some forceful and heavy handed police and military actions, some terror incidents might spread to Jammu or even the entire country. This will go on for few months, may be more than 2 months. But then everything will return to normalcy and everything will be back on track, except the feeling that they are being ruled forcefully by the India.

It is here the Kashmiri people must get practical. First is, India will never give up Kashmir. Secondly, no partition is NOW possible for any State of Union Of India.

India will not give and can not afford to give up anything on Kashmir. Any Govt. even thinking of giving concessions could face wrath and unimagined opposition of Indian masses. Years of turmoil and damages in form of property and death to its security forces, ethnic cleansing of Kashmiri Pandits and their still unresolved issues, terror attacks through out India, have strengthened the will of every Indian, that not even a millimeter of land of India cannot be negotiated. Hence they Kashmiri people must now realize that they are better of with India, as there is no second option to this.

If that is the situation, another partition could prove to be more devastating than the first one and more fatal than even a nuclear bomb explosion. The misery and death it could unleash in the subcontinent, is beyond anybody’s imagination.

So better get back to negotiation table and they must talk their problems and difficulties with the authorities and their rightful representatives. Every problem has solution and can be attained with talking to each other. You can not ask for negotiators’ head for negotiating with you. Kashmiri people must respect Indian Constitution and speak in conciliatory language. They are lucky to have Article 370 to look after their well-being. They should speak to the Indian Govt about their aspiration and try to fulfill such aspirations staying within the Indian Constitutional frame work. Otherwise it could happen that under tremendous public pressure Union Govt might be even forced to repeal the Article 370. So better start talking.

Indian culture and its history is one of that forgetting and forgiving. Hinduism believes in LIVE & LET LIVE, and that is the Indian philosophy. That is perhaps the reason for to Kashmiri people must understand that they are now short of sympathy and not as hot a topic on the world scene today as it was few years back. As truth is after all a truth.

So have a break nothing will happen to our Kashmir. let the people of Jammu settle some score in between.