With such a scenario, all other Governments of these South East Asian countries, could start to envisage a role in the future Afghanistan. India & Pakistan are the primary stake holders in the post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Pakistani government would obviously want India to stay away from the Afghanistan, once the NATO troops are out of South East Asia. Under the pretext of waging joint war against terror with U.S., it is asking for its rewards in form of better placed strategically than India in post -USA withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Though the Americans know it well that they have had been completely fooled by the Pakistanis and they do admit about the same, by various means, and at various platforms, their compulsions are understood. But what India can not understand is the reason.
They are willingly allowing itself to be fooled by the Pakistanis and happily playing to the gallery of Pakistan's role in its war on terror. I really have serious reservations that a country like USA with its military power and the best minds of strategy makers have not realized the fact that the Pakistan have changed course of their operation and subsequently the goal itself. Pakistan establishment with the behavoir of spoilt chaild has forced the US to follow what Pakistan always wanted, from the days of Afghan occupation by the Russian forces. It has very successfully dominated the American mind and surprisingly and logically USA has allowed to be cowed down by Pakistani military establishment.
Pakistan can happily boasts itself in front of those who wished to win the crusade, of having defeated the American design to finish the Islam. This obviously would be their line of claim while dealing with the Islamic militants. I really would doubt that they have ever thought from this perspective.
They have saved Osama Bin Laden, they have helped the Omar to stay underground, despite the mounting USAF Dron attacks. Strategy is simple and have paid off. These militants have stayed out of reach of the allied forces in Afghanistan, at the behest of Pakistani military establishment.
Pakistani perseverance to tide over US pressure on the Taliban forces have now paid off. It has changed the path of Americans very cleverly by continuously buying time for its efforts to save top militants like Osama Bin Laden and likes of Mullah Omar. From the WAR ON TERROR, the war has come to the alliance between the Karzai Government and the Taliban. Taliban will be brought back to the mainstream politics and power of Afghanistan. Taliban might have its minister and may be even a Prime Minister !! It is once again a failure of the only super power.
I have sincere doubts that the Osama Bin Laden or the Mulah Omar, may one day reach White House and have dinner with US President, like that had happened with Yasar Arafat of PLO. This is not far from what I see how the things could change in the world scenario and politics. Today's enemies could turn out to be clse friends and close enough to have dinner togather.
They have saved Osama Bin Laden, they have helped the Omar to stay underground, despite the mounting USAF Dron attacks. Strategy is simple and have paid off. These militants have stayed out of reach of the allied forces in Afghanistan, at the behest of Pakistani military establishment.
Pakistani perseverance to tide over US pressure on the Taliban forces have now paid off. It has changed the path of Americans very cleverly by continuously buying time for its efforts to save top militants like Osama Bin Laden and likes of Mullah Omar. From the WAR ON TERROR, the war has come to the alliance between the Karzai Government and the Taliban. Taliban will be brought back to the mainstream politics and power of Afghanistan. Taliban might have its minister and may be even a Prime Minister !! It is once again a failure of the only super power.
I have sincere doubts that the Osama Bin Laden or the Mulah Omar, may one day reach White House and have dinner with US President, like that had happened with Yasar Arafat of PLO. This is not far from what I see how the things could change in the world scenario and politics. Today's enemies could turn out to be clse friends and close enough to have dinner togather.
However it must be recognized that the major credit of US military operational failures can be attributed to the Pakistani officials' ability to convince the US military command to look other way round. They very shrewdly did not allow US forces to reach to actual centre of the terror infrasturue by allowing the US forces to go to the extent which they always wanted and they thought was enough and necessary to keep the fire alive. They never worked to douse the fire !
I have very serious reservation about the US administration's understanding of the entire events happening in and around Pakistan & Afghanistan !
Nobody on this globe knows where the Osama & Omar are, except the entire Pakistani military establishment. The Taliban, who was driven out of Afghanistan, has once again regrouped itself and is roaring to go after the Americans and all western countries that including India. It is hard to believe that the Americans never ever envisaged such a scenario. It is known to whole world that they have the habit of simulating a distant situation, creat hype with obidient media and prepare the American forces and the Administration for the worst. But here in case of Afghanistan, The US seems to have mis-read the Taliban, Afghans & Pakistanis.
Problem with Amricans is little more serious than they actually think. The problem will be felt once the US led allied troops leave Afghanistan, the Pakistan wants to dominate the envisaged Afghanistan government. In this case the return of Taliban to the mainstream politics in Afghanistan is forgone conclusion ! Because in the name of reconciliation, present Govt. led by Karzai, under the influence of departing US forces will need to accommodate the Taliban militants, who would be more than willing to share the power at the centre. Their participation seems inevitable to the US planners.
In this connection they have started to locate "good" Taliban terrorist after differentiating them with the "bad" Taliban terrorists. This new policy is being adopted by the Obama Administration. Barak Obama knows that they can not fight a war with Taliban with locals against them. They can not stay on forever without the oil controls coming their way. So its better to leave now instead of after sometimes when they have more coffins of their soldiers arrived in their air bases!
The problem with the US is, it is democratic nation and this super power changes its mind very shortly. Once a change of guard takes place from Republicans to Democrats, or for that reason, vice versa, the entire foreign policies change per se. US can not languish for long in Afghanistan, reasons are obvious and very clear. The cost of operations overseas will hit the US conomy very badly and secondy the rising casualties of its security men. The operation in Afghanistan will reach to almost a decade. For all these years they have failed find niether Osama Bin Laden nor
Mullah Omar.
They will leave in a year or two. Their compulsion at home are understood. But what after they leave. This is a worrying question, which India needs to address. Considering the fact that Pakistan has been fooling Americans since long and they will continue to do so, besides Americans have little choice than to oblige Pakistan. Perhaps they need a friend who stanbs them from behind and perhaps Americans deserve that too!
In this conditions they would accomodate Pakis in more in the devolution of powers in Afghanistan. Pakistan will be interested in installing Government which is friendly to its interests. If Pakistan is believed and followed, then they have little choice in whom to support to form a next Govt. in Kabul other than Talibans. Americans have seems to have accepted this reality and hey have already started to find for good moderate Talibans who can be trusted once the troops are pulled out of Afghnistan.
It is really pity that a small country was initially ruled by Russians, via Najibullah Govt. till the Russian troops withdrew, and they have Karzai Govt., backed by USA. Poor little country still does not realis that they need to get united and one and then face the world. They need to learn to get united and fight unitedly.
With this situation in mind, India needs to re-define its Foreign relations and its policies. It needs to give a thought on totally different level and different direction. The new situations are arising out of nowheer and we need to think and give shape to our policies keeping in mind changing and fluid sitation in Afghanistan. Few days back Afghan-Taliban leader had spoken to media, saying that they do not oppose India and Indians, per se. They want to have good working relations with India. They have reservations to an extent that we have been not speaking against USA for their drone attacks in which the civilians get killed. Their objections in this connection is absolutely correct and anyone would agree that its utterly logical.
Taking cue from such a statement by top Taliban leaders, India need to change the years old rigid perception about the Taliban. Taliban may be a small Now here comes the bomb. India must approach Taliban in Afghanistan. They must lend support to the fragile nature of the government that would come to power once the US & its allies leave Afghanistan. India should not have any problem with approaching Afghan Taliban. After all we have no problem with Saudi Arabia or for that reason any other country what they do in their own country and that's absolutely their internal problem and issues.
Why should Indian policy makers have objections to a form of Government, when their own people are supporting it ? What is the problem when even Americans are trying hard to have reconciliation with Taliban for lasting peace in Afghanistan / Besides any compromise with Afghan Taliban will put Pakistan in its place. And that must be the first priority. We have no expansionist policies in Afghanistan or anywhere in the world. (Indians are more smarter than Americans in this direction!) So why should we get what is lawfully ours and why should we go into hiding for no fault of ours in Afghanistan ?
Our national interest is of foremost important. We as a nation shy away from claiming what is rightfully ours. Our nationals are making sacrifices in Afghanistan for its development. We have had been maintaining the best relations with Afghanistan since centuries. Afghan people are more closer to Indians than they are to Pakistanis.
A little strategic change in policy will do lot of good for two nations. Why should we follow age old policies which has no relevance in the present scenario. Had we been maintaining the same sort of distance with the Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran for their belief in their religion, our stand could have had been vindicated, but Afghanistan is a poor and backward country, it has not developed to call the shots in the international arena, so we say we do not wish to have relations with Taliban Government ! I feel this utterly ridiculous.
We just need to have our national interest in mind while dealing with Afghanistan and not who rules that nation ! There are innumerable advantages if we start dealing with Afghan Taliban. USA can not even give advise that we should stay away from Afghan Taliban, as it is them only who are looking for these same Taliban for lasting peace in Afghanistan once they leave the country.
INDIA ONLY GAINS FROM SUCH SHIFT IN POLICY.
They will leave in a year or two. Their compulsion at home are understood. But what after they leave. This is a worrying question, which India needs to address. Considering the fact that Pakistan has been fooling Americans since long and they will continue to do so, besides Americans have little choice than to oblige Pakistan. Perhaps they need a friend who stanbs them from behind and perhaps Americans deserve that too!
In this conditions they would accomodate Pakis in more in the devolution of powers in Afghanistan. Pakistan will be interested in installing Government which is friendly to its interests. If Pakistan is believed and followed, then they have little choice in whom to support to form a next Govt. in Kabul other than Talibans. Americans have seems to have accepted this reality and hey have already started to find for good moderate Talibans who can be trusted once the troops are pulled out of Afghnistan.
It is really pity that a small country was initially ruled by Russians, via Najibullah Govt. till the Russian troops withdrew, and they have Karzai Govt., backed by USA. Poor little country still does not realis that they need to get united and one and then face the world. They need to learn to get united and fight unitedly.
With this situation in mind, India needs to re-define its Foreign relations and its policies. It needs to give a thought on totally different level and different direction. The new situations are arising out of nowheer and we need to think and give shape to our policies keeping in mind changing and fluid sitation in Afghanistan. Few days back Afghan-Taliban leader had spoken to media, saying that they do not oppose India and Indians, per se. They want to have good working relations with India. They have reservations to an extent that we have been not speaking against USA for their drone attacks in which the civilians get killed. Their objections in this connection is absolutely correct and anyone would agree that its utterly logical.
Taking cue from such a statement by top Taliban leaders, India need to change the years old rigid perception about the Taliban. Taliban may be a small Now here comes the bomb. India must approach Taliban in Afghanistan. They must lend support to the fragile nature of the government that would come to power once the US & its allies leave Afghanistan. India should not have any problem with approaching Afghan Taliban. After all we have no problem with Saudi Arabia or for that reason any other country what they do in their own country and that's absolutely their internal problem and issues.
Why should Indian policy makers have objections to a form of Government, when their own people are supporting it ? What is the problem when even Americans are trying hard to have reconciliation with Taliban for lasting peace in Afghanistan / Besides any compromise with Afghan Taliban will put Pakistan in its place. And that must be the first priority. We have no expansionist policies in Afghanistan or anywhere in the world. (Indians are more smarter than Americans in this direction!) So why should we get what is lawfully ours and why should we go into hiding for no fault of ours in Afghanistan ?
Our national interest is of foremost important. We as a nation shy away from claiming what is rightfully ours. Our nationals are making sacrifices in Afghanistan for its development. We have had been maintaining the best relations with Afghanistan since centuries. Afghan people are more closer to Indians than they are to Pakistanis.
A little strategic change in policy will do lot of good for two nations. Why should we follow age old policies which has no relevance in the present scenario. Had we been maintaining the same sort of distance with the Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran for their belief in their religion, our stand could have had been vindicated, but Afghanistan is a poor and backward country, it has not developed to call the shots in the international arena, so we say we do not wish to have relations with Taliban Government ! I feel this utterly ridiculous.
We just need to have our national interest in mind while dealing with Afghanistan and not who rules that nation ! There are innumerable advantages if we start dealing with Afghan Taliban. USA can not even give advise that we should stay away from Afghan Taliban, as it is them only who are looking for these same Taliban for lasting peace in Afghanistan once they leave the country.
INDIA ONLY GAINS FROM SUCH SHIFT IN POLICY.
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1 comment:
It is absoluetly stunning and refreshing idea. It has so many advantages besides almost zero disadvantage rate ! We can indirectly keep the Talibans in Pakistan under check and starve Pakistani design for using Taliban against India ! Besides this will improve Indo-Afghan relations as well. You have rightly said, we should not bother who rules Afghanistan, instead we need to concentrate on our nationa ineterst.
Animesh Mehta
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