Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Future Scenario

The present situation in the world is being blamed to economic development of India & China by some of the developed countries. President Bush and Secretary Ms. Rice have openly said so. Consumption of Oil by these two economies no where near the consumption of United States of America and Europe. But these facts will be refuted by the developed nations. It is always the blame game. This is perhaps the gap between developed and under developed world.

The situation in the world is going to get bad and deteriorate further with every passing day. Everybody is witnessing this happening. The oil prices will zoom further, which will lead to more and more money going towards the Middle East and they becoming richer and richer. The M.E. countries now have more choices than they had in 1970s & 1980s for investments. The money will come back as Petro Dollars.

These Petro Dollars were invested in US economy in the last century, but now the returns are more attractive, if invested in India & China. Hence the increased consumption in USA and Europe, will bring more dollars to India & China. Here India & China have some competitors coming up in form of Brazil & Russia.

Considering these facts, is this the beginning of an end to US super power status. It will depend upon how the new Administration handles the new situation. It is very important that the US and all other Governments think over this aspect. It is in their interest that they control the speculation in oil. They are making money at the moment, but they will have to pay higher prices to middle east, who might not be as interested as before to invest in USA, as they might did in the previous century. This is perhaps the drain of their wealth to middle east and sort of redistribution of wealth to other parts of the world.

What is said is a long term positive scenario. USA and its allies might not allow this to happen as scripted above and they might go in for a unnecessary war. They entered into a conflict with the Iraq and then wanted all other nations to be part of its obnoxious campaign to contain Saddam Hussein, which most of the people in the world see as personal vendetta between Former President George Bush and Saddam Hussein.

This time it could be Iran. US is deeply embroiled in Iraq. It can neither swallow nor vomit, sort situation in Iraq. Perhaps the same fear of reprisals as it is facing in Afghanistan & Iraq, it has stayed away from Iran. Perhaps it is wise to not to open another front for its defense forces.

With respect to India, despite some of the studies are showing that the Outsourcing to India has worked in favour of the US companies and they have become richer, let it be that way. The Americans are enemies of themselves only. With Jobs shifting to India & China might have played some role in the sub prime crisis in American economy. It is ridiculous and beyond my understanding of the situation, where in corporates in America are becoming richer by reducing the cost of the product with outsourcing, their native Americans are becoming insolvent due to loss of their jobs.

The banks & other investment houses are taking the burns.

Again this is redistribution of wealth. If the intent is not honest, you will though succeed, but you have to pay with all that you have. This what I have learned over the years.

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